Thursday, October 10, 2013

NFL Week 6 Predictions

Week 5 Predictions (9-5)
Season Record (49-28)

Winners in BOLD
(Game Times CST)

NYG @ CHI
Thursday 7:25 p.m.

Like I said last week, I'm not picking the Giants until they show me something. Their -100 points differential is second worst in the NFL (only behind the lowly Jaguars). The next closest is St. Louis at -38. It's really a true testament as to how bad the two NFL's 0-5 have been. The Bears on the other hand are coming off two straight losses after starting 3-0. Yes, they've made their fair share of mistakes, but I'm not reading too much into it. I don't know who can beat the Saints right now regardless of where the game is, and many people expected the Lions to give the Bears a game in Detroit. No David Wilson, a terrible offensive line and a turnover prone Eli Manning are all clear signs of a Bears big win on Thursday.

CIN @ BUF
Sunday 12:00 p.m.

Who is Buffalo starting, that guy they just signed off the practice squad Thad Lewis? If the Bills had a healthy E.J. Manuel, I'd give the Bills a fighting chance. The Bengals defense is finally starting to dominate as expected and they became the first team to hold Tom Brady without a TD pass in 52 games last week. Tom Brady > Practice Squad QB's.

DET @ CLE
Sunday 12:00 p.m.

First, I want to say I don't think the Lions are very good (especially on the road). This is an eight win team, if that. After watching the Packers defense give the Lions fits, you have to think how much better the Browns defense is. It's crazy to say that Brian Hoyer being out hurts a team's chances, but it really does. Brandon Weeden stepping in and actually playing solid against the Bills should give him a little confidence going into this one. If Cleveland actually wants a shot to compete in the AFC North, they need this one. Green Bay, Kansas City, Baltimore and Cincinnati are next.

OAK @ KC
Sunday 12:00 p.m.

Good for the Chiefs. Their defense has allowed the fewest points in the NFL. Their +70 point differential is second in the league trailing only Denver. Alex Smith has been everything the Chiefs have asked for and Jamaal Charles has been great as well. Oakland is 0-2 on the road, against two tough teams. Sadly for them, it doesn't get any easier here. Thinking a little bit ahead, with Houston, Cleveland and Buffalo to follow, a 9-0 Kansas City start is not out of the realm of possibility. Who would've thought?

CAR @ MIN
Sunday 12:00 p.m.

Outside of a 38-0 beat down of the Giants (everyone seems to do it), the Panthers have not looked very good. They could very well be 2-2 though if not for an E.J. Manuel TD pass with two seconds left. Not to say Minnesota has been impressive, but they've competed in every game. Carolina is seventh in the NFL in rushing yards per game allowed at 92. This game will be close, but I like the Vikings to edge out Carolina at home.

PIT @ NYJ
Sunday 12:00 p.m.

I'll be honest, I thought there was no chance the Jets would walk out of the Georgia Dome with a win. Have to give them credit, they did it. To say Mike Smith and the Falcons didn't cost themselves the game, that's a whole different story. Luckily, they're on a bye week that they need more than ever. Rex Ryan has his team playing great football and defensive lineman Muhammad Wilkerson showed on prime time that he is going to be a real star. But, Geno Smith for the first time all year did not turn the ball over. Ryan Clark claims the Steelers, although at 0-4 are not out of it. Wishful thinking, so we'll just have to wait and see. I like the Jets here.

PHI @ TB
Sunday 12:00 p.m.

Nick Foles steps in for the injured Michael Vick for the Eagles. Everyone saw that move coming at one point or another this season. Not that Nick Foles is bad, but he is nothing more than an average QB. Tampa Bay has been terrible this season, but three of their four losses have been by a combined six points. It took the Saints, (yes the now 5-0 Saints) a game winning field goal as time expired to beat them. The Eagles defense has been terrible. Could this finally be Doug Martin's breakout game in 2013?

GB @ BAL
Sunday 12:00 p.m.

Green Bay has had to play two tough road games and have come out 0-2. It doesn't get any easier against the defending champs. No Clay Matthews for the next month is a bigger blow than I think most NFL fans realize. It's usually safe to pick the team with the better QB, even more so when the one who just signed for $100+ million has two TD's and six INT's over the past two weeks. The Ravens have struggled against the pass this year, but I still like Baltimore at home in what could be a high scoring game.

STL @ HOU
Sunday 12:00 p.m.

Nobody wants and needs to play better in this game than Matt Schaub. Texans coach Gary Kubiak had to call it a, "tough decision" to start him. The Rams defense has allowed 11 passing touchdowns (tied for fifth most in the NFL), so if Schaub were to ever have a good game, it'd be here. Arian Foster finally looks healthy and getting involved in the passing game, too. Everyone thought the Rams were this year's sleeper team and I was never really sure why. I didn't think it mattered if they were in the tough NFC West or weak NFC East. They weren't going to contend either way. It's looking like a 2-4 start for St. Louis.

JAC @ DEN
Sunday 3:05 p.m.

I think I'll just try and pick the score, because predicting how the game goes seems to be a little too easy. Just imagine if they weren't going to pull Peyton Manning in the second half. 20 touchdowns, one interception in five games. 45-3 Denver.

TEN @ SEA
Sunday 3:05 p.m.

Ryan Fitzpatrick going on the road to face a 10-0 at home Russell Wilson. Can't imagine this game being close.

NO @ NE
Sunday 3:25 p.m.

Tom Brady is off to one of the worst starts of his career. Lacking any big name receiver, on top of Gronkowski being out and an abysmal running game, it's tough to put all the blame on him. Drew Brees on the other hand has Jimmy Graham who is poised to break all kinds of tight end records this season. Graham is coming off four straight 100 yard games and it is extremely fair to expect number five here. Everyone probably imagines a shootout in this one and who could blame you for thinking so, but each of these defenses rank in the top five for points against thus far. However, I like Tom Brady bouncing back in a big way after his poor performance on the road versus Cincinnati.

ARI @ SF
Sunday 3:25 p.m. 

Six completions from you quarterback doesn't seem like it would win you many games. But, that's all it took Colin Kaepernick to demolish the Texans 34-3 last week. The 49ers showed their true ground and pound identity and ran the ball 36 times compared to just 15 passes. Arizona ranks third in the NFL in rushing yards against, allowing just 79 yards per game. Kaepernick will need to play better to take some pressure off the defense. I like his chances to do so.

WSH @ DAL
Sunday 7:30 p.m.

Really, who wants to win the NFC East? It may only take eight or nine games to do so. Dallas is coming off an incredible effort against the Denver Broncos in a game they really could have won if not for a late interception by Tony Romo. I don't like Washington's defense, a unit that has been one of the worst in football to stop the explosive Cowboys offense. It's fair to expect another high scoring game here, but I like Dallas winning the shoot-out.

IND @ SD
Monday 7:30 p.m.

Many people expected the Colts to take a minor step back this season and give way to the Houston Texans again. Five weeks into the season, it's looking like just the opposite. Trent Richardson is ready to handle the full workload now that Ahmad Bradshaw is lost for the season. If San Diego is going to be a playoff team, they have to beat bad teams on the road and they looked horrible at Oakland last week. The Colts have turned the ball over just four times this year, good for second in the NFL. Philip Rivers is looking to become the first QB in NFL history to throw for three straight 400+ yard games, but I don't like his chances facing a defense that has only allowed 300+ yards through the air once so far. Colts win and improve to 5-1 while extending their lead in the AFC South.

Thursday, October 3, 2013

NFL Week 5 Predictions

Week 4 Predictions (9-6)
Season Record (40-23)

Winners in BOLD
(Game Times CST)

BUF @ CLE
Thursday 7:25 p.m.

So let's get this straight. The Browns are just fooling everyone. After an 0-2 start, starting quarterback Brandon Weeden gets hurt and they trade running back Trent Richardson to the Colts. In steps backup Brian Hoyer as well as a below average running back committee and they rattle off two straight wins. Football really is an interesting game. But, the Cleveland defense is legit. The unit has allowed the fourth fewest yards in the NFL and tight end Jordan Cameron has been better than anyone imagined. I like the Browns and their defense to give rookie QB E.J. Manuel a rough night and get to 3-2.

NO @ CHI
Sunday 12:00 p.m.

It's really hard to pick against the 4-0 Saints who are firing on all cylinders. But, they are coming off a short week and are going to a tough place to play in Chicago. How the Bears try to stop the dynamic combination of Drew Brees and Jimmy Graham though? That'll be the difference.

NE @ CIN
Sunday 12:00 p.m.

The Bengals are coming off a bad home loss to the Browns, while the Patriots are coming off an impressive road win at Atlanta. Andy Dalton has almost seemed to take a step back as he can't find any real consistency. After A.J. Green went off for 162 yards in the opener, he's been held to just 138 in the last three.

DET @ GB
Sunday 12:00 p.m.

Seriously can't believe the Lions have lost the past 19 games at Lambeau Field. The Lions offense is really good, which is why I think this game is going to be really close. But, I like Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers edging them out at home.

KC @ TEN
Sunday 12:00 p.m.


No Locker, no chance. Chiefs move to 5-0.

SEA @ IND
Sunday 12:00 p.m.

Seattle was lucky to escape Houston with a win thanks to a bad interception by Matt Schaub. I like the Colts more, especially now with Trent Richardson getting comfortable learning the playbook.

JAC @ STL
Sunday 12:00 p.m.

This is the Jaguars best chance to get a win for while. Sadly, it's not going to happen for them here.

BAL @ MIA
Sunday 12:00 p.m.

PHI @ NYG
Sunday 12:00 p.m.

The Giants need to show me something before I can actually pick them to win a game. They've been outscored by 62 points over the last two games!

CAR @ ARI
Sunday 3:05 p.m.

DEN @ DAL
Sunday 3:25 p.m.

With 16 touchdowns and zero interceptions, Peyton Manning has been unbelievable. The Broncos defense is number one against the run, but I'll throw that stat out for this one, because it'll be hard to run the ball when you're down 20 early.

HOU @ SF
Sunday 7:30 p.m.

The 49ers are well rested and the Texans are coming off a loss that had to have taken a lot out of them. With a soft schedule coming up, this could end up being a pivotal game to the start of a big streak for San Francisco. Texans offensive coordinator Rick Dennison said Schaub is, "mentally tough." Going into hostile Candlestick Park, he'll need to be for Houston to have a chance.

SD @ OAK
Sunday 10:35 p.m.

NYJ @ ATL
Monday 7:30 p.m.

Atlanta needs this win, badly. Sitting at 1-3 looks bad but like San Francisco, they have a soft schedule for the next few games and need to start a streak here. They've lost their three games by a combined 17 points and have led by 10 or more in two of them. There's really nothing I can see happening that would give the Jets an edge here. Falcons will take out their frustration and get to 2-3 as they try to begin their climb back in the division.

Thursday, September 26, 2013

NFL Week 4 Predictions

Week 3 Predictions (8-8)
Season Record (31-17)

Winners in BOLD
(Game Times CST)

SF @ STL
Thursday 7:25 p.m.

You know, last week I gave the excuse that the Giants were too good to fall to 0-3. Obviously, not the case after that 38-0 beat down. But, I am not buying that the 49ers are not a playoff team. Falling to 1-3 would put them in a tough spot even in what looks like a weaker than usual NFC. Luckily, SF has had a really tough schedule. The Rams do not come close to the talent level of the Colts, Packers and definitely no where near the Seahawks. Although no Aldon Smith and a questionable Vernon Davis, I like Kaepernick bouncing back in a big way as SF climbs back to 2-2.

BAL @ BUF
Sunday 12:00 p.m.

CIN @ CLE
Sunday 12:00 p.m.

Sorry Brian Hoyer and Browns fans, the Bengals are a LOT better than Minnesota. Geno Atkins and that dangerous front seven may have a field day. Cincy wins big.

CHI @ DET
Sunday 12:00 p.m.

This is for first place in the NFC North. The Bears look tremendous with their defense creating turnovers and scores like last year, and the offense under Marc Trestman has definitely worked thus far. Losing Pro Bowl DT Henry Melton for the season to a torn ACL hurts, but Chicago's talented defense will be able to make up for it. Nate Collins is the next man in line. Detroit's offense has been high-powered as expected, but I like the Bears on the road into forcing one more turnover out of Matt Stafford in what could be a high scoring game.

NYG @ KC
Sunday 12:00 p.m.

Just raise your hand if you had the Giants going 0-4 and the Chiefs going 4-0. Right there with ya.

PIT @ MIN
Sunday 12:00 p.m.

Both teams have been bad, really bad. I'll admit, I thought there was no way the Vikings could lose at home to a Brown team minus their starting QB and RB. But, hey they did it and you almost want to give them props for it! I'm not trying to say the Steelers are good or anywhere near a playoff team, but they have had a pretty tough schedule thus far facing teams that are all above .500. They'll get their first win over Minnesota in London, but don't know how pretty it'll be.

ARI @ TB
Sunday 12:00 p.m.

IND @ JAC
Sunday 12:00 p.m.

Impressive win for the Colts last week on the road v.s. the 49ers. On the road v.s. the Jaguars, I won't call it impressive. 

SEA @ HOU
Sunday 12:00 p.m.

Really tough game to pick, but I'm taking the better team, the Seahawks. Although they're about to enter a tough two game road stretch with the Colts following, Seattle has shown me everything I need to see to think they can get it done.

NYJ @ TEN
Sunday 3:05 p.m.

PHI @ DEN
Sunday 3:25 p.m.

This one will be a high scoring game, but how can you not take Peyton Manning on a season where he is poised to break every record he can? Eagles hang in, for maybe the first half.

WSH @ OAK
Sunday 3:25 p.m.

DAL @ SD
Sunday 3:25 p.m.

NE @ ATL
Sunday 7:30 p.m.

Atlanta has not figured out how to close a game. Things that were working for them when they went 13-3 last year, have not worked out in their early rough 1-2 start. Injuries have piled up, but that's no excuse to having a 10+ point lead in each game and in two, give it right back. Since the 2011 season, the Falcons are 14-3 in the Georgia Dome. Although a tough 3-0 Patriots team is coming to town, they haven't had to play a contender yet. I like Atlanta at home to get to an even 2-2.

MIA @ NO
Monday 7:30 p.m.

Miami just keeps surprising people by winning close games over good teams and blowing out the bad ones. But, in New Orleans on a prime-time game with the way Drew Brees has that offense going, it's going to be really tough. Rob Ryan's defense has only allowed 17 points once. This is really important game for the Saints as they go on the road next to Chicago and New England. Saints win and improve to 4-0, but this one is going to be really good.


Thursday, September 19, 2013

NFL Week 3 Predictions

Week 2 Predictions (12-4)
Season Record (23-9)

Winners in BOLD
(Game Times CST)

KC @ PHI
Thursday 7:25 p.m.

Can't say enough how much I loved the signing of Alex Smith for this Chiefs team. Already with two great weapons on offense in Charles and Bowe and a pretty good defense, they needed to bring in a QB who could limit turnovers and actually give them a chance to win every night. 2-0 this year (even though one was against the Jaguars) after 2-14 last year speaks for itself. Philly's offense is good, there's no doubt about it (talk about offensive weapons). But, I haven't seen anything in their defense to make me think they can beat a much improved KC team. After making Philip Rivers look like Peyton Manning in Week 2, I don't see why Alex Smith won't be any different.

GB @ CIN
Sunday 12:00 p.m.

Aaron Rodgers looks really good as usual. James Starks just posted the first 100 yard game from a GB running back in 45 games, although I don't think we'll see anywhere near that type of production against a strong Bengals front seven. With Cobb, Nelson, Jones and Finley, the Bengals secondary just isn't good enough to stop them. Packers get the win and improve to 2-1 before their early bye.

STL @ DAL
Sunday 12:00 p.m.

SD @ TEN
Sunday 12:00 p.m.

CLE @ MIN
Sunday 12:00 p.m.

Neither team is good. Neither will win more than five games this season. But, the trade of Trent Richardson just gave this already predictable game away. Although, I don't disagree with the trade because you can get a good running back beyond the first round of the draft, it still won't make fans happy. But, this team is a while away from contending. Draft a franchise QB and WR in the first round, and a RB can wait (just look at Alfred Morris, LeSean McCoy, Jamaal Charles, Matt Forte, etc.) Minnesota wins big, but it'll probably be the only time you read that statement this year.

TB @ NE
Sunday 12:00 p.m.

Patriots will go to 3-0, but can any of Brady's receivers not named Julian Edelman catch the ball?

ARI @ NO
Sunday 12:00 p.m.

DET @ WSH
Sunday 12:00 p.m.

NYG @ CAR
Sunday 12:00 p.m.

The Giants have turned the ball over 10 times in the first two games. As bad as that is, the talent is still there. I have my doubts the usually disciplined G-men will fall to 0-3.

HOU @ BAL
Sunday 12:00 p.m.

ATL @ MIA
Sunday 3:05 p.m.

I'm really not understanding the love for the Dolphins. Yes, they're 2-0, but one of their wins was against the Browns. Ryan Tannehill has been a big reason for the hot start because it has had nothing to do with Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas. Although the Falcons are beaten up, they're still a lock for 10-11 wins and their explosive offense will be too much for Miami to keep up with.

BUF @ NYJ




Sunday 3:25 p.m.

IND @ SF





Sunday 3:25 p.m.

49ers will bounce back at home after an ugly loss to the division rival Seahawks.

JAC @ SEA
Sunday 3:25 p.m.

The real question is will the Seahawks win by the score of 35-0, or 35-7?

CHI @ PIT
Sunday 7:30 p.m.

Chicago is 2-0 and although it hasn't exactly been pretty, let's try and take away the important things from the wins. Jay Cutler has led two fourth quarter comebacks, the offensive line has been better than any Bears fan imagined, the defense has had opportunistic takeaways and the special teams unit looks great as always. It's been a while since the Bears have seen Devin Hester play like that. Pittsburgh has absolutely no running game. Chicago will be ready for Roethlisberger on a prime-time game.

OAK @ DEN
Monday 7:30 p.m.

You could probably find worse guys to start in fantasy this week than Terrelle Pryor. It'll most likely be "garbage time" at halftime, so he'll rack up some yards and meaningless touchdowns. But, it's fantasy football so who cares who wins and loses. Peyton Manning looks better than ever with more weapons around him than he's had in his career. He's going to be a lot of fun to watch all season.

Wednesday, September 11, 2013

NFL Week 2 Predictions

Winners in BOLD
(Game times CST)

NYJ @ NE
Thursday 7:25 p.m.

STL @ ATL
Sunday 12:00 p.m.

CAR @ BUF
Sunday 12:00 p.m.

MIN @ CHI
Sunday 12:00 p.m.

WSH @ GB
Sunday 12:00 p.m.

MIA @ IND
Sunday 12:00 p.m.

DAL @ KC
Sunday 12:00 p.m.

SD @ PHI
Sunday 12:00 p.m.

CLE @ BAL
Sunday 12:00 p.m.

TEN @ HOU
Sunday 12:00 p.m.

DET @ ARI
Sunday 3:05 p.m.

NO @ TB
Sunday 3:05 p.m. 

JAC @ OAK
Sunday 3:25 p.m.

DEN @ NYG
Sunday 3:25 p.m

SF @ SEA
Sunday 7:30 p.m.

PIT @ CIN
Monday 7:30 p.m.

Thursday, August 22, 2013

L.A. Dodgers Chances of Winning World Series

Everyone knew they had talent. A lot of people know that you can buy championships. But, nobody really understood what took the Los Angeles Dodgers so long to "get going."

They were struggling with just a 23-32 record on the third of June. It seemed like a good time to call up their number one prospect, Yasiel Puig. Now, we ask why they waited so long.

Since Puig arrived in the big leagues, he's made it look easy. He's hitting 346/.403/.961 12 HR 29 RBI and has constantly showed off his great arm in RF while playing above average defense. Although he's come back to earth after an incredible debut month of June (hit .287 in July, .296 in August).

When you hear Dodgers, you immediately think Puig's team. Yes, he was a major reason to the turnaround of the team, but now sitting in first place at 72-54, comfortably 8.5 games ahead of the Arizona Diamondbacks, he had a lot of help.

This was a team that underachieved. You know they were going to turn it around at some point (maybe not to this extent).

L.A. has a team ERA of 3.26, good for third in the MLB. Their bullpen ranks 12th with a 3.48 ERA. Don't have to say much about Clayton Kershaw. But, others have stepped up such as rookie Hyun-Jin Ryu and Ricky Nolasco since being brought over from Miami. Zack Greinke has looked like his former CY Young self, and Chris Capuano has been a serviceable #5.

Removing Brandon League from the closer's role was the smartest thing the Dodgers could have done. Not really sure why the young hard thrower Kenley Jansen wasn't starting the season in that spot.

The team has a loaded offense that again, was just a matter of time until they clicked. When you put Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez, the aforementioned Puig, Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp (who's been injured) all in the same lineup, they're going to hit.

The two ace's Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke have not proved themselves to be quality postseason starters. It's very concerning considering everything Greinke has gone through and how dominant Kershaw is each and every regular season. Pitching wins championships. If these two pitch anything close to the way they are now, the Dodgers will be crowned 2013 World Series Champions. If not, it may be an unexpected quick and ugly exit for the men in blue and white.

My World Series 2013 Odds for the Los Angeles Dodgers - 8/1

Monday, July 22, 2013

Ranking NL CY Young Candidates - Midseason

1. Clayton Kershaw (LAD)

A 2011 CY Young Award Winner, Kershaw has been in similar dominant form in 2013. Although only 9-6, he sports an MLB best 2.01 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. He has a K/BB ratio of 148/35. A win/loss record does not determine whether a pitcher is having a good season. See Stephen Strasburg (5-7 2.97 ERA) and Lance Lynn (11-5 4.13 ERA). Can only hope voters do not get caught up in something out of Kershaw's control as the Dodgers offense, although much better lately, is 25th in the MLB in runs scored.


2. Adam Wainwright (STL)

He is on the best team in the MLB, on pace to have the best season of his career and is tied for the MLB lead in wins with 13, although being backed by the number three offense in baseball never hurts. Not taking anything away from a truly dominant season from the Cardinals ace, but he has not been better than Kershaw. Wainwright has 5 losses, a 2.44 ERA and a K/BB ratio of 137/17. Wainwright will make you hit your way on. He hardly ever beats himself, which makes him such a great, confident pitcher. He looks to become the first Cardinals pitcher to win the award since Chris Carpenter in 2005.


3. Matt Harvey (NYM)

If Harvey were to stay on his scheduled 34 start pace, he projects to strike out 271 batters. The Mets have already made it clear to preserve Harvey's health in a lost season, they will skip him in the rotation every once in a while. Still only in July, he has already surpassed his career high in innings at any professional level with 137 (previous high was 135 2/3 in minors). He is only 8-2, because of the sluggish Mets offense, but has a 2.23 ERA and 0.89 WHIP. Harvey, who has four plus strikeout pitches, has an extremely bright future ahead. A CY Young award is not too far away from the 24-year-old.